Given our diversified business model and multiple sources of revenue, and despite the tense macroeconomic environment, we believe we are very well positioned to further improve our earnings in the medium and long term. This expectation is based partly on the secular growth opportunities that we intend to exploit (for details, see the “Opportunities report”), as well as on additional forecast inorganic growth.

In line with our strategy, we assume that net revenue will increase by at least 5 per cent in the forecast period on the basis of secular growth opportunities. We are driving this growth through investment. By doing so, we aim to shift further market share from over-the-counter trading and clearing to the on-exchange segment and to further expand our positions in existing asset classes by introducing new products and functionalities and acquiring new customers. Thanks to the very good cyclical performance in 2022, higher market volatility and rising interest rates, we assume that the cyclical net revenue contribution will either be only slightly positive or even negative in the forecast period. This depends largely on future changes in market volatility and interest rates, particularly with regard to net interest income from banking business. In total, we therefore anticipate net revenue in the €4.5–4.7 billion range for the forecast period.

Within the context of our growth strategy, we pursue clearly defined principles for managing operating costs. We achieve the necessary flexibility largely by making continuous improvements to our operating processes. This enables us to manage operating costs partly in line with net revenue growth. In the forecast period, we expect earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to increase to €2.6–2.8 billion.

Forecast for results of operations 2023